Neighbouring Scots pine populations from contrasting climatic regions show substantial variability but consistent response to warming

Natural tree populations consist of individuals that exhibit intraspecific adaptive variation at a range of geographic scales, as a result of the balance between gene flow and selection. The spatial distribution and magnitude of such variation will influence the capacity of populations to adapt to forthcoming changing environmental conditions. The native Scots pine populations in Scotland represent what remains of the iconic Caledonian forest. Despite being distributed within a relatively narrow geographic area these populations occur across a steep East-West environmental gradient of increasing rainfall and temperature. We hypothesised that western populations compared to those from the east may be better adapted to warmer conditions and as a consequence, may respond differently to the increased temperature predicted during climate change. We conducted an experiment lasting 22 weeks in controlled environment chambers using a nested hierarchical design based on material from different regions (west or east), populations and families (half sibs). We examined the effects of two temperature scenarios, current temperature and warmer predicted temperature on percentage germination as well as growth and morphology of above and below-ground traits. Most of the variation occurred at the family level. Nevertheless, significant regional and population differences were detected, where eastern populations invested more in roots, exhibited fewer stomatal rows per needle and produced thinner roots. In addition, warmer temperatures had strong effects on early growth that were consistent in material from both regions and resulted in earlier germination, greater growth and biomass, but these effects were not accompanied by shifts in biomass partitioning. Although the strong effect of warming suggested temperature limitation for early growth in the study areas under current conditions our results did not support the idea that low seedling recruitment resulting from poor emergence and early growth would lead to a decline in Scottish populations of Scots pine under a warmer climate. Our results are informative regarding the adaptive potential in the populations and will contribute to the development of appropriate forest conservation strategies

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km <sup>2</sup> resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km <sup>2</sup> pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10-8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10-8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10-8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific associat

Satellite data track spatial and temporal declines in European beech forest canopy characteristics associated with intense drought events in the Rhön Biosphere Reserve, central Germany

The increasing intensity and frequency of droughts under climate change demands effective ways to monitor drought impacts. We sought to determine how different satellite remote sensing sources influence our ability to identify temporal and spatial impacts on European beech forest canopy health during intense drought events. Imagery from three satellite series (MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2) was used to observe changes in canopy health during the intense droughts of 2003 and 2018 in the Rhön Biosphere Reserve, central Germany. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies were calculated for each satellite between 2000–2020 and compared against temperature, precipitation and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Severe canopy impacts in 2003 and 2018 were associated with low NDVI in August and September. At the stand-scale, Sentinel-2 data allowed a spatially detailed understanding of canopy-level impacts, while MODIS provided the clearest temporal progression of the drought’s impacts on the forest canopy. Low NDVI values were not exclusively associated with extremes of either temperature and precipitation individually; however, low canopy NDVI in August was associated with SPEI values below −1.5. Although the intense drought of 2018, as defined by meteorological parameters, peaked in July, canopy NDVI did not decline until August, highlighting that our ability to detect canopy impact during drought events is sensitive to the timing of image acquisition. No single satellite sensor affords a full picture of the temporal or spatial progression of drought impacts. Consequently, using sensors in tandem provides the best possible representation of canopy health during intense drought events

Jet stream position explains regional anomalies in European beech forest productivity and tree growth

The mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions. © 2022, The Author(s).Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]